Build case to get $53b debts written off By Zahid Malik

  

Build case to get $53b debts written off

At this crucial point of time and grim situation, one shudders to imagine the emerging economic scenario. In the wake of havoc played by unprecedented floods and the resultant deprivation among the flood affectees, and other people too, Pakistan may further plunge into uncertainties of all sorts. The economy is already in a shambles and to add to the dismal situation, the Ministry of Finance has come out with an assessment that the economy is heading for zero per cent GDP growth rate and a whooping inflation of 25% during the ongoing financial year. It is indeed a horrible scenario.

Over and above, the Government of Pakistan is trying to keep the future generations of Pakistan hostage to foreign debts that have accumulated to a staggering $53 billion. According to experts this debt would rise to $ 73 billion in 2015-16 and one never knows if the present state of affairs may ultimately land us with a $ 100 billion debt in the next ten years.
It is no rocket science to arrive at the conclusion that an individual or a nation that is entangled in the cobweb of debt, which often comes with humiliating conditions, loses self-respect and sovereignty. Those who know the IMF conditions, their impact and the extent of intrusion by its officials in policy formulation, say that Pakistan has been mortgaged to the Fund. After the floods, the IMF team is due to discuss the emerging economic scenario with Pakistani finance and economic managers. In addition, the IMF representatives are already sitting in the economic ministries in the garb of experts and time is not far-off when there would be more such officials sitting in the rooms next to the Federal Secretaries. It is also to be mentioned here that World Bank, IMF and other institutions employ quite a significant number of Indian nationals and their presence in the corridors of power in Islamabad may jeopardize our national security interests because their (Indians) first loyalty would be with their country and then to the employer.

Pakistanis being a conscious and self-respecting nation are against acquiring loans and they think, rightly so, that this nation can stand on its own feet and that is why when former Prime Minister Mr Shaukat Aziz used to say proudly “We have broken the begging bowl”, people felt their heads raised on prospects of the country moving towards self-respecting economically independent State. Those statements were not just political gimmicks because we not only stopped receiving financial facility from the IMF but also the country had emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, Stock Index touched over 16,000 marks/points and foreign exchange reserves reached at the highest level of $ 18 billion.

Now that it is recognized internationally and by the UN that losses from the unprecedented floods were more than the 2004 tsunami, 2005 Pak earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake, therefore, I think Pakistan needs much more than just assistance for relief and rehabilitation. The losses to infrastructure alone are so high that Pakistan would not be able to recoup in the next five years. Almost the entire Kharif crop of the country has either been washed away or adversely affected by the floods translating into losses worth trillions of rupees to the farmers and the national economy. 

In view of the unprecedented devastation to economy, infrastructure, industry and agriculture, I recommend a case should be built to approach the donors for the loans write-off. It will not be the first case of its nature. International laws, the UN Charter, ethics and morality all support Pakistan's case for getting a write-off. Various countries have invoked these laws and in the recent past Iraq and Afghanistan loans were written off as their case was strongly supported by the United States.



The IMF waived a debt to Haiti and the World Bank also deferred repayment of its debt for five years. At the same time, the international community pledged $ 5.3 billion to fund the initial phase of Haiti's reconstruction where the Government reported to the international community that in addition to the many dead, 300,000 were injured and one million made homeless. A total of 250,000 houses had collapsed or severely damaged.

Comparing to the losses of Haiti, the damage in Pakistan is colossal. Here twenty million people have been affected by floods, over one million houses damaged in addition to destruction of the entire crop on which the country's rural economy and textile industry depend.

If we look to the response of international community received so far, though we do not want to make any comparison, it is like peanuts to the assistance given to Haiti. We have been pledged just over $ 815 million as against $ 5.3 billion aid to Haiti. The international community went in a big way for Haiti because two former American Presidents Clinton and Bush pursued the case of relief and reconstruction of the tiny Island State.

There are many other justifications. But I think the justifications I have enumerated in the preceding paragraph would be enough if these are presented with a proper documentary proof to the international community and a write-off is sought.

Keeping all this in view, I pleaded to President Asif Ali Zardari on August 16, 2010 when he invited a group of 7 Editors at the Presidency for an informal and frank interaction, that Pakistan should build a case for a write-off of all the foreign debts. I also mentioned how according to my assessment Pakistan, in the perspective of flood-related world sympathy wave, can approach the donor countries and institutions for this one-time substantial relief.

I asked the President as to why Pakistani nation and leadership set aside vital State interests and only cared about self-interests. I also mentioned that former President Pervez Musharraf who did a lot of good things for Pakistan failed, however, to get a substantial support when he decided to respond to the US query/threat by saying, “We are with you” in the aftermath of 9/11 tragedy. Now it is a known fact that the US was ready to give $ 10 billion to Pakistan for cooperation in the fight against terrorism as they gave substantial assistance to Egypt and Turkey at the time of invasion of Iraq. President Musharraf, perhaps, thought it below his dignity to demand for due compensation. But President Zardari did not appear to be interested in my submissions.Therefore, what I am talking about is building a case quantifying the facts by the experts and with input from the Provincial Governments and endorsed by the DNA of WB and ADB about the huge flood losses. Aid for the flood damages should also be accompanied by a demand of $ 60 billion which according to my assessment Pakistan suffered in the war on terror and the resulting losses of human lives, infrastructure and so many other expenses. In fact Pakistan has been suffering continuously since 1979 when we joined the civilised world to oust the Soviet Union from Afghanistan.

On the basis of the two issues i.e. floods and war on terror devastations, Pakistan can field a genuine case to the international community for either writing off of all loans or their swap, to use those loans for development and social welfare of the people of Pakistan affected by floods and war on terror. If need arises, Pakistan can give sovereign guarantees that the swap would be utilized under the monitoring of any international financial institution.

In case it is done, and Pakistan puts across a well-documented right message through the entire machinery available i.e. Government channels, political leadership of the country, media and foreign friends, it may meet success. But it has to be an orchestrated all-out campaign. I am sure, this would receive a positive consideration. Even if you go to the court of world public opinion and managements of the donor organizations, I am sure, that may carry a lot of weight. There is no harm even in engaging an international lobbying firm to build up the Pakistani case. I also propose the Government to show large-heartedness and, in the best national interest, to entrust the task to Mr Shaukat Aziz as he enjoys good rapport with Governments, World Bank and IMF as well as with the world's leading bankers and knows fully well how they work. I am confident he can charm the donors.

In any case, it is incumbent upon the leadership of the country that instead of going into trivial things like getting the IMF loans restructured or asking for a waiver of certain conditionalities, they should think big and do some loud thinking. Don't dwarf Pakistan which is a big country in all respects. Our leaders should develop confidence in themselves and at least make an attempt, a serious one, to save our poor future generations from the clutches of the crushing loans. We owe this to our future generations. May I ask our leaders “If you don't get the debt of US$ 53 billion written off then who will, and how, pay these loans?” Every child of Pakistan is not Balawal, therefore, it is incumbent upon the leadership to think of non-Balawals also.
 

Flooded Pakistan's 'Royal' Minister In New York

ISLAMABAD – While thousands perished and millions were forced to flee from the floods that swept Pakistan this month, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, who came to New York City with a begging bowl in hand for foreign aid, was spending thousands of dollars per night at cushy five-star hotels in the US. ‘Beggars cannot be choosers’ evidently is an adage never heard by our honorable leaders. Be it a visit to the flood victims’ camps or a trip abroad to collect aid for the badly devastated country of ours by the unprecedented flash floods. Their style and status never appears to change. To the shock and surprise of the entire nation, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the foreign minister of this unfortunate country spent as many as $20,000 from the national kitty during his stay in a luxury hotel in New York City.   [This hotel is normally the top choice for those interested in shopping and sightseeing. Here’s how one reviewer describes the hotel: “For those travelers who prefer luxurious accommodations in the heart of one of the most exciting cities in the world, the Inter-Continental The Barclay is ideal. The Barclay is just minutes from many of the attractions that make New York City such a vibrant and unique place to visit. Located in midtown Manhattan's East Side, the hotel boasts such famous and beloved neighbors as the exclusive shops of Fifth Avenue, Rockefeller Center, Broadway theaters and New York City's bustling business district.”] The total expenditure of Qureshi’s visit including the spending on his six-member entourage may be much more. Interestingly, when UK Prime Minister David Cameron came to NYC to attend a meeting (Qureshi went there to attend the same meeting) recently, he stayed at the British consulate residence. Qureshi proved to be more Royal than the Royal servants of her Majesty! According to sources, Shah Mehmood Qureshi and his delegation of six assistants who were in NYC recently to beg the world for aid, stayed at Barclay Continental Hotel, one of the most expensive hotels of the city, which cost the national kitty thousands of dollars. It is pertinent to mention here that it is the same hotel where President Asif Zardari has been staying as president whenever he is in New York City. In comparison, Pakistan Air Force  Chief Qamar Suleman forced Ambassador Hussain Haqqani to cancel a lavish dinner in his honor during his recent visit there. Ironically, following the rejection by the Air Chief, Haqqani is said to have spun the rebuff and released a story to the official APP news agency that he himself had cancelled the dinner and donated the expense to flood victims.   Interestingly, the Foreign Minister’s hotel reservation was also managed by the same ambassador, who avoided hurting his own personal relationship with his boss (Foreign Minister) by suggesting the minister save money and stay at the ambassador’s residence, or at least at a less expensive hotel. When contacted, Spokesperson of Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the figures regarding expenditure incurred on Qureshi’s stay at the hotel were far less than those mentioned by this correspondent ($20,000). Such stories are not new for the Pakistanis. The National Assembly was told on April 24, 2008 that President General Pervez Musharraf and his wife had spent Rs1.5 billion from the national kitty on their foreign trips during his five-year tenure. It was Foreign Minister Qureshi who disclosed that the former president had taken at least 1,325 visitors along with him in 37 trips since February 2003-2008. Musharraf’s visit to the USA to attend the book launching ceremony of his autobiography “In the Line of Fire” turned out the most expensive trip, as it cost Rs227 million.   Likewise, President Asif Zardari and his associates were busy in spending huge money from the national kitty on their stay in luxury hotels abroad, while thousands of people here in Pakistan were facing shortage of food and safe drinking water.   This report was published by TheNation under title, ‘Royal’ FM’s fundraiser costs the national kitty heavily.

Pakistan Befor & After floods

These satellite pictures show the effects of the catastrophic floods which have left up to 20 million people homeless in Pakistan.

The images, taken with Nasa’s Aqua satellite, use a combination of infrared and invisible light to increase the contrast between water and land.

Water appears in varying shades of blue and clouds in blue-green, while vegetation is green and bare ground is pinkish-brown.

 The extend of the flooding is particularly obvious in these images, taken on August 14, 2009 and August 15, 2010 which show visible swelling of the Indus and Jhelum Rivers.

Where Are Pakistan's Millionaire Politicians?

  

 This is a lesson for the whole Pakistani nation. If you are a Pakistani reading this, please tell others.
While the world’s rich dole out money to help Pakistan’s flood victims, Pakistan’s rich political elite refuses to budge. By now we should have been seeing members of this ruling elite buying tents, building shelters and providing gallons of clean drinking water to the homeless millions.
But in every flooded district of the country, you will see Pakistani civilian and military volunteers. But not the politicians.
Consider this:
On the first day of a nationwide Saudi campaign to raise funds for the victims of floods in Pakistan on Monday, 17 Aug. 2010:
-         King of Saudi Arabia, Abdullah bin Abdelaziz Al Saud, donated US$5.3 million from his private money to Pakistan flood victims
-         Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdelzziz Al Saud gave away US$2.7 million from his private money
-         Interior Minister Nayef bin Abdelaziz Al Saud gave away two million Saudi riyals
-         Governor of Tabouk donated one million Saudi Riyals
-         Prince Alwaleed bin Talal bin Abdelaziz Al Saud gave ten million Saudi riyals
-         Businessman Eesa bin Mohammad al Eesa, president of the Samba Financial Group, donated two million Saudi riyals
This is not to mention the sight of Saudi women who thronged public aid collection camps in different Saudis cities and were photographed by the international media donating their jewelry to King Abdullah’s campaign in support of Pakistan.
Compare this to the reaction of the Pakistani elite:
-         Pakistan’s president, a billionaire in dollar terms by some accounts, is yet to donate anything or even be seen donating anything anywhere. There were reports he donated Rs. five million to a fund named after his son and daughter, and only Rs. one million to the government fund. This is less than what he might have spent wandering in France and Britain earlier this month.
-         The most shocking part is that the PPPP is trying to milk large companies out of relief money for private party funds. This means that the party is quietly trying to direct aid money to private funds rather than relief funds run by the government or the Pakistani military. The ruling party is reported to have convened a meeting in the business hub city of Karachi where leading businessmen were asked to donate to a Bakhtawar Fund, named after the president’s elder daughter. The meeting was chaired by president’s sister, senator Faryal Talpur. But she failed to get a pledge for a single rupee from any attending businessmen.
-         The Sharif family has donated Rs. 10 million, which is peanuts compared to what the family could have donated. Not to mention that no one knows how this amount will be spent. Pakistanis are yet to see any member of the Sharif clan seeing off trucks carrying relief goods or opening clean water plants in the affected areas.
-         None of the one thousand members of the federal and provincial parliaments have been sighted at any of the affected regions helping people or distributing aid. If anything, a few of the shameless politicians were quick to jump in front of visiting TV crews. One of them, from Sindh, was seen seated in a boat run by the army for the media giving out an interview to a leading anchor. The politician was pretending as if he was organizing the rescue operations in Sindh.

-         Forget helping people, a senior member of the PPPP from Balochistan is accusing two influential feudal members of PPPP Sindh of diverting flood waters to Balochistan and creating a humanitarian crisis there to save their vast landholdings in Sindh. This is a serious allegation that merits investigation and stern punishment if proven. But who will do it? And what is more important: private feudal landholdings or the lives of thousands of poor people? Don’t ask Pakistani politicians, obviously.

-         An unusual situation in Pakistan is that the country’s closed club of political elite monopolizes large chunks of the economy. So these politicians control everything, benefit from inflation, pay no taxes and are under no obligation to donate generously when fellow countrymen are in need.-         The Pakistan Army donated a day’s salary of its soldiers, who come from poor backfrounds, for the relief effort. No politician is yet to take a similar step. And we are talking about a bunch of people who arrive at the federal parliament in Islamabad in expensive imported luxury cars, wearing expensive watches and jewelry and looking awash in wealth.

-         The millionaires and billionaires in the Pakistani business community, unlike the politicians, are donating directly to the victims in the affected areas but refuse to route the money through the coffers of a government run by this political elite. The conclusion is this: while the country reels under a humanitarian tragedy, it is the Pakistani middle class, the Pakistani business class, a couple of religious charities and the armed forces that have come to the rescue of their fellow countrymen during a disaster. They will always step up to help their countrymen.

Pakistan’s politicians, among them the nation’s richest, will disappeared in a flash during a crisis like they have done now.

 

Are they Really Floods or Something Else?

The important debate on global warming under UN auspices provides but a partial picture of climate change; in addition to the devastating impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the ozone layer, the World's climate can now be
modified as part of a new generation of sophisticated "non-lethal weapons." Both the Americans and the Russians have developed capabilities to manipulate the World's climate.

In the US, the technology is being perfected under the High-frequency Active Aural Research Program (HAARP) as part of the ("Star Wars") Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI). Recent scientific evidence suggests that HAARP is fully operational and has the ability of potentially triggering floods, droughts, hurricanes and earthquakes.

HAARP IS A MASS DESTRUCTIVE WEAPON - NOT PART OF ANY NEGOTIATIONS

From a military standpoint, HAARP is a weapon of mass destruction. Potentially, it constitutes an instrument of conquest capable of selectively destabilising agricultural and ecological systems of entire regions.

While there is no evidence that this deadly technology has been used, surely the United Nations should be addressing the issue of "environmental warfare" alongside the debate on the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases.

Despite a vast body of scientific knowledge, the issue of deliberate climatic manipulations for military use has never been explicitly part of the UN agenda on climate change. Neither the official delegations nor the environmental action groups participating in the Hague Conference on Climate Change (CO6) (November 2000) have raised the broad issue of "weather warfare" or "environmental modification techniques (ENMOD)" as relevant to an understanding of climate change.

The clash between official negotiators, environmentalists and American business lobbies has centered on Washington's outright refusal to abide by commitments on carbon dioxide reduction targets under the 1997 Kyoto protocol.(1) The impacts of military technologies on the World's climate are not an object of discussion or concern. Narrowly confined to greenhouse gases, the ongoing debate on climate change serves Washington's strategic and defense objectives.

"WEATHER WARFARE"

World renowned scientist Dr. Rosalie Bertell confirms that "US military scientists are working on weather systems as a potential weapon. The methods include
the enhancing of storms and the diverting of vapor rivers in the Earth's atmosphere to produce targeted droughts or floods."(2)

Already in the 1970s, former National Security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski had foreseen in his book "Between Two Ages" that:

"Technology will make available, to the leaders of major nations, techniques for conducting secret warfare, of which only a bare minimum of the security forces need be appraised... Techniques of weather modification could be employed to produce prolonged periods of drought or storm. "

Marc Filterman, a former French military officer, outlines several types of "unconventional weapons" using radio frequencies. He refers to "weather war," indicating that the U.S. and the Soviet Union had already "mastered the know-how needed to unleash sudden climate changes (hurricanes, drought) in the early 1980s." (3) These technologies make it "possible to trigger atmospheric disturbances by using Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) radar [waves]." (4)

A simulation study of future defense "scenarios" commissioned for the US Air Force calls for: "US aerospace forces to 'own the weather' by capitalizing on emerging technologies and focusing development of those technologies to war-fighting applications." From enhancing friendly operations or disrupting those of the enemy via small-scale tailoring of natural weather patterns to complete dominance of global communications and counterspace control, weather-modification offers the war fighter a wide-range of possible options to defeat or coerce an adversary. In the United States, weather-modification will likely become a part of national security policy with both domestic and international applications. Our government will pursue such a policy, depending on its interests, at various levels. (5)

THE HIGH-FREQUENCY ACTIVE AURAL RESEARCH PROGRAM - HAARP

The High-Frequency Active Aural Research Program (HAARP) based in Gokoma Alaska-jointly managed by the US Air Force and the US Navy-is part of a new generation of sophisticated weaponry under the US Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). Operated by the Air Force Research Laboratory's Space Vehicles Directorate, HAARP constitutes a system of powerful antennas capable of creating "controlled local modifications of the ionosphere".

Scientist Dr. Nicholas Begich-actively involved in the public campaign against HAARP-describes HAARP as: "A super-powerful radiowave-beaming technology that lifts areas of the ionosphere (upper layer of the atmosphere) by focusing a beam and heating those areas. Electromagnetic waves then bounce back onto earth and penetrate everything-living and dead." (6)

Dr. Rosalie Bertell depicts HAARP as "a gigantic heater that can cause major disruption in the ionosphere, creating not just holes, but long incisions in the protective layer that keeps deadly radiation from bombarding the planet." (7)

MISLEADING PUBLIC OPINION

HAARP has been presented to public opinion as a program of scientific and academic research. US military documents seem to suggest, however, that HAARP's main objective is to "exploit the ionosphere for Department of Defense purposes." (8) Without explicitly referring to the HAARP program, a US Air Force study points to the use of "induced ionospheric modifications" as a means of altering weather patterns as well as disrupting enemy communications and radar.(9)

According to Dr. Rosalie Bertell, HAARP is part of a integrated weapons' system, which has potentially devastating environmental consequences: "It is related to fifty years of intensive and increasingly destructive programs to understand and control the upper atmosphere. It would be rash not to associate HAARP with the space laboratory construction which is separately being planned by the United States. HAARP is an integral part of a long history of space research and development of a deliberate military nature.

The military implications of combining these projects is alarming. The ability of the HAARP / Spacelab/ rocket combination to deliver very large amount of energy, comparable to a nuclear bomb, anywhere on earth via laser and particle beams, are frightening. The project is likely to be "sold" to the public as a space shield against incoming weapons, or, for the more gullible, a device for repairing the ozone layer. (10)

In addition to weather manipulation, HAARP has a number of related uses: "HAARP could contribute to climate change by intensively bombarding the atmosphere with high-frequency rays. Returning low-frequency waves at high intensity could also affect people's brains, and effects on tectonic movements cannot be ruled out. (11).

More generally, HAARP has the ability of modifying the World's electro-magnetic field. It is part of an arsenal of "electronic weapons" which US military researchers consider a "gentler and kinder warfare". (12)

WEAPONS OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER

HAARP is part of the weapons arsenal of the New World Order under the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). From military command points in the US, entire national economies could potentially be destabilized through climatic manipulations. More importantly, the latter can be implemented without the knowledge of the enemy, at minimal cost and without engaging military personnel and equipment as in a conventional war. The use of HAARP-if it were to be applied-could have potentially devastating impacts on the World's climate.

Responding to US economic and strategic interests, it could be used to selectively modify climate in different parts of the World resulting in the destabilization of agricultural and ecological systems. It is also worth noting that the US Department of Defense has allocated substantial resources to the development of intelligence and monitoring systems on weather changes. NASA and the Department of Defense's National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) are working on "imagery for studies of flooding, erosion, land-slide hazards, earthquakes, ecological zones, weather forecasts, and climate change" with data relayed from satellites. (13)

POLICY INERTIA OF THE UNITED NATIONS

According to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro:

"States have, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction." (14).

It is also worth recalling that an international Convention ratified by the UN General Assembly in 1997 bans "military or other hostile use of environmental modification techniques having widespread, long-lasting or severe effects." (15) Both the US and the Soviet Union were signatories to the Convention. The Convention defines "environmental modification techniques" as referring to any technique for changing-through the deliberate manipulation of natural processes-the dynamics, composition or structure of the earth, including its biota, lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere or of outer space." (16) Why then did the UN-disregarding the 1977 ENMOD Convention as well as its own charter-decide to exclude from its agenda climatic changes resulting from military programs?

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ACKNOWLEDGES IMPACT OF HAARP

In February 1998, responding to a report of Mrs. Maj. Britt Theorin-Swedish MEP and longtime peace advocate--, the European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, Security and Defense Policy held public hearings in Brussels on the HAARP program.(17) The Committee's "Motion for Resolution" submitted to the European Parliament: "Considers HAARP by virtue of its far-reaching impact on the environment to be a global concern and calls for its legal, ecological and ethical implications to be examined by an international independent body; [the Committee] regrets the repeated refusal of the United States Administration to give evidence to the public hearing into the environmental and public risks [of&] the HAARP program." (18.)

The Committee's request to draw up a "Green Paper" on "the environmental impacts of military activities", however, was casually dismissed on the grounds that the European Commission lacks the required jurisdiction to delve into "the links between environment and defense". (19) Brussels was anxious to avoid a showdown with Washington.

FULLY OPERATIONAL

While there is no concrete evidence of HAARP having been used, scientific findings suggest that it is at present fully operational. What this means is that HAARP could potentially be applied by the US military to selectively modify the climate of an "unfriendly nation" or "rogue state" with a view to destabilizing its national economy. Agricultural systems in both developed and developing countries are already in crisis as a result of New World Order policies including market deregulation, commodity dumping, etc. Amply documented, IMF and World Bank "economic medicine" imposed on the Third World and the countries of the former Soviet block has largely contributed to the destabilization of domestic agriculture. In turn, the provisions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) have supported the interests of a handful of Western agri-biotech conglomerates in their quest to impose genetically modified (GMO) seeds on farmers throughout the World.

It is important to understand the linkage between the economic, strategic and military processes of the New World Order. In the above context, climatic manipulations under the HAARP program (whether accidental or deliberate) would inevitably exacerbate these changes by weakening national economies, destroying infrastructure and potentially triggering the bankruptcy of farmers over vast areas. Surely national governments and the United Nations should address
the possible consequences of HAARP and other "non-lethal weapons" on climate change.

Pakistan Floods: Causes and Consequences

Pakistan Floods: Causes and Consequences

August 19, 2010

Diagnosing the right causes is perhaps the first step towards suggesting an appropriate framework of action. As two thousand people are being reported dead and twenty million severely affected, the recent deluge in Pakistan is invariably drawing attention from various quarters. While the pro-dam lobby is advocating the cause of Kalabagh dam, with Shams ul Mulk, former chief of WAPDA, claiming that the dam could have mitigated the impact of the deluge, the United States for its own reasons is strategizing to leverage its aid policy in order to win the hearts and minds of the Pakistanis. The Pakistan Army meanwhile has stepped up relief and rehabilitation programmes with great visibility and political gimmick. However, even as the floods in Pakistan continue to leave its disaster footprint every day, the causes which contributed to these ravaging floods need to be addressed by the Pakistani establishment.

What caused floods in Pakistan? While some hold monsoon patterns and heavy rainfall responsible for flash floods, others consider climate change, dams and deforestation as playing the trigger for the floods. Between these vying explanations the facts available on the existing timber mafia in Pakistan are the most telling. According to a story featured in Al Jazeera English (August 8, 2010), the provincial head of the National Disaster Management Authority has been quoted as saying that denudation is one of the main reasons for aggravating the floods as only 5.2 per cent of land in Pakistan is covered by forests. A local organisation, Sarhad Awami Forestry Ittehad (SAFI), has claimed that in parts of Malakand Agency, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, “more than 70 percent of forests were illegally cut down between 2007 and 2009, when Pakistani Taliban controlled the region.” Another report in The Guardian (August 12, 2010) claims that the flooding has been intense in areas where the timber mafia is active. It states that the felled trees stacked in ravines for the purpose of smuggling were dislodged by the force of water, thus sweeping away bridges, people and weakening the dam walls along its way. In fact, according to reports, the timber filled the Tarbela dam reservoir, thus blocking any storage space.

Down South, Sindh reverberates with a similar story. While the villagers and the local people have been resisting the landlords and the Army from illegal encroachment of land, the state response has been almost flippant. As per the available facts, forests cover only 2.3 per cent of the total land area of Sindh and reports claim that the deteriorating condition of the forests refrain them from contributing to timber, fuel wood or fodder. Reports have been continuously flooding the media that illegal tree cutting has been carried out at a large scale along the canal banks and the riverine forests in Northern Sindh. The timber mafia whose actions often go unchecked due to their links with the political leadership in North Sindh has been accused of disturbing the delicate balance in the eco-system.

The timber mafia though is just one reminder of the gravity of man’s tinkering with nature. Its uninhibited sustenance in the polity of Pakistan is a strong pointer to the still existing feudal set-up which very much governs Pakistani society. Floods in Pakistan in the coming months could bring these festering contradictions to the fore with some consequence. The resentment would only build up as inequity and disproportionate distribution of resources further increases. This is because one of the most visible impacts of the floods would be seen in the agricultural sector which along with being the backbone of the Pakistani economy also sustains the livelihood of the majority of the rural population. Agriculture employs round 47 per cent of the population and around 60 per cent of the annual national foreign exchange earnings come from this sector alone. The major crops in Pakistan are rice (2.6 million hectares), maize (1 million hectares), jowar (0.3 million hectares) cotton (3 million hectares), wheat (8.6 million hectares), and sugarcane (1 million hectares). Low production of any of the major crops could adversely impact the Pakistani economy especially in terms of balance of payments. If one casts a look at the trail of destruction in Pakistan, the floods have severely impacted Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa which is the main producer of sugarcane and maize, South Punjab which is the main producer of cotton and wheat, and Sindh which is the main producer of cotton and rice.

Moreover, as resentment towards feudals is very much prevalent in all the four provinces, any lack of outreach by the federal and provincial governments to alleviate the plight of the common men and women might aggravate further anti-state tendencies. The Seraiki movement in South Punjab has often raised voices against the discrimination that the Seraiki belt has been witnessing over the past years. Presence of the Taliban in Sindh and South Punjab are too well known to be reiterated here. The plight of the farmers and the majority of rural population can also be gauged from the land distribution pattern in Pakistan. Peasant eviction in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has given rise to collectives like kisan jirga and Mazdoor Kisan Party. In Punjab, the peasantry is known for its belligerent resistance. The Okara farm dispute in 2003 is a reminder of the seething anger peasants feel against the hegemonic monopolization of land and resources by the Army. Meanwhile, exploitation of Haris in Sindh, who often articulate their demand through Sindh Hari committees, is also a pointer to the iniquitous distribution of resources. Not only around 80 to 85 per cent of land is Sindh is operated by tenants, but also around 1.6 million acres of government land in Kotri barrage and 1.1 million acres in Guddu barrage were allotted to non-sindhis in the 1960s. Thus the peasants of Sindh constituting the majority of population would be facing desperate days as they have no alternative livelihood to bank upon. As some media reports rightly point out, the real problem would start when authorities start to pay compensation and the haris (peasants) would be asked to provide ownership documents, which they obviously do not possess as the land belongs to landlords most of whom have available resources to cope with the disaster.

According to estimates, the cost of rebuilding flood-hit areas could swell up to USD 15 billion. As the international community joins hand in pumping aid to Pakistan, vulnerability and helplessness, which the people are facing, is only increasing with time. While the World Food Programme states that destruction of wheat and rice could leave almost 6 million people hungry, reports have already started flooding the media on the impending starvation deaths.

Given that the floods in Pakistan are the worst humanitarian crisis in recent times, dissemination and distribution of aid to the needy population would indeed be a challenge for the government. However, apart from alleviating the material plight of the people, transforming the feudal mindset and operationalising reforms that are much needed to induce fair play and social justice in Pakistani society should be one of the long term priority areas for the civilian government.

 

Joota Kushai ki dastaaan-

Arbab Ghulam Raheem "Joota Kushai"

Bush Baba ki "Joota Kushai"


Zerdari ki "joota kushai"



Dr Sheer Afgan ki "Chitter Prade"

Why does the PPP not govern? -Shahzad Chaudhry

 

Politics at the moment is about power, not about serving the people. It seems that the president knows the difference well, but he is content to pursue his own plan even if it means handing over the reins to the PML-N at the end of his five years

Within the last two weeks Pakistan has faced three major disasters. An Airblue flight went down in the Margallas, and exposed the inadequacies of the governing structure in proffering an organised effort to search and rescue. We became the laughing stock of the world because of the manner of our non-existent sense of response, capability and capacity in such calamities.

The floods followed soon after, as if giving a lie to the most popular refrain of the previous months, when everyone with a microphone unleashed a volley of abuse against India for imposing `water terrorism' on Pakistan. There are many more reasons for castigating India, but water has rarely been a factual cause. Mostly, we have failed to frame our case on the basis of reality and have been driven by sentiment based on hearsay, and a poor knowledge base of our water issues. Nature compensated us well for the shortages of the previous months with widespread rains, except that we were ill-prepared, as everywhere else, to garner, exploit and use this seasonal gift. What should have been a boon has turned into a bane; hundreds have died, properties lost and the natural cycle of growth, agricultural and industrial, seriously disrupted. A few more billion dollars will be needed to recover from a huge economic setback. Sadly, this too points to an endemic failure of governance, lack of foresight, a dominant sense of laissez-faire in the ruling circles and an entire absence of planning and interest in governing.

Target killings in Karachi are the third chapter of sorrow. Why is there no law being applied? Three days of paralysis in the economic hub of Pakistan has wrought three times the financial loss caused by the unprecedented floods. The floods were God-sent and beyond human intervention, but what about fulfilling a constitutional duty of protecting the life and property of the people of Karachi? Where was the state? Why has the state failed?

This leads me to my question in the title: is the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) actually into governance? I fear not. To my mind, any governance during their current tenure is likely to be incidental, never a planned activity. The PPP and its mandarins will give you many reasons for their plight, chief among these the war on terror, a handover from a military government lacking institutions, a difficult regional environment, and a radicalised society fuelling an uncertain domestic environment. These are a cover for their failures in governance, but a sellable cover all the same. The real reason though is different. It lies in the various fault-lines that retch the party from within, and continue to be perceived as the most imminent business concern within the party's hierarchy. The reasons for the PPP's failures in governance are political in nature, not geo-political, social or security-dominated.

The root of the PPP's perceived nightmares lies in the brutal killing of the iconic Benazir. Three immediate challenges befell the hapless Zardari. Given his own weak reputation within the rank and file of the party, his biggest challenge was to gain and retain control of the party. He must have expected pretenders to unleash their ambitions when Benazir's domineering presence disappeared. Amin Fahim from within and Ghinwa Bhutto and Mumtaz Bhutto from outside the party fold provided substance to his apprehension. Second was the threat to the Bhutto legacy. He, a Zardari and not a Bhutto, meant he needed to reincarnate a Bhutto. Appeared Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who was anointed the chairperson of the PPP at 18 years. Losing the Bhutto lineage and control over the PPP has been a persistent fear for Zardari. That puts into perspective how both Bilawal and Asifa are being portrayed internationally as the rightful heirs to rule Pakistan. That also explains why the president abdicated his role as the head of the state and instead of relating to people in distress, he opted to head towards Europe to celebrate his son's graduation and to launch him into active politics. There are changes to Bilawal's induction plans, but we have not yet seen the last of them. Zardari's mind is occupied with such issues, rather than aspects of ruling or governance.

Zardari's third challenge was purely political — to maximise the PPP's influence and power base across the national scene. The PML-N's hold over Punjab, and Nawaz Sharif's unquestioned status as a national leader in Benazir's absence, added to Zardari's reason of urgency to counter such a domineering challenge to the PPP's traditional hold. Despite the initial tentativeness and apparent discomfort on both sides to engage, Zardari kept up a pretence of finding common political ground, in reality seeking time to reinforce his political hold, while taking the sting out of the PML-N's opposition. Their combined aversion to military intervention has helped them co-exist, albeit uneasily. Most analyses point to a discreet agreement between the two to avoid berating one another and to let the political system sustain without undue challenge. While Zardari works on entrenching his family's hold over the party and expand its political base, Nawaz Sharif sees a major chink in the PPP armour because of derelict governance, offering him an almost assured return to head the next government. Both seek time-based political agendas. The deal is: no harrying.

With such motives, where is the place for any thought on governance or delivery of service?

Politics at the moment is about power, not about serving the people. It seems that the president knows the difference well, but he is content to pursue his own plan even if it means handing over the reins to the PML-N at the end of his five years. In Zardari's own calculus, time to reinforce control over the party is a bigger imperative than a return to power. Eight years from now Bilawal will be at a more acceptable age to vie for ruling the country. The default dividend in such an arrangement for both parties is an uninterrupted 10 years of democratic rule, helping entrench the political tradition, and distancing the military from habitual intervention.

The 18th Amendment may already be part of law, but the power locus still lies extensively in the Presidency. The prime minister remains a nominated executive and an appointee without authority. The cabinet responds to him only in name, in reality reporting to the president for seeking relevance in the constantly evolving political equation within the party. With both the ministers and the senior bureaucracy looking to the president, and governance farthest from the president's mind, there simply is no governance. Governance is a `demand and supply' function. Ministers deliver governance when the executive demands it. For the moment, the prime minister is dislocated and out of sorts, a forlorn figure, and incapable of governing.

Shahzad Chaudhry is a defence and security analyst

 

Pakistan in crisis: left to help themselves

Drive along the newish motorway from Islamabad to Peshawar and for a time things seem normal. Until you approach the bridge straddling the Jindi River.

There, on the reservation dividing the two carriageways, is a village created overnight by families who fled there to escape the floodwaters that engulfed them in the night. For eight days they have lived like this, in tatty tents without groundsheets, only a few hours' drive from their country's manicured capital, yet bereft of help from a government seemingly indifferent to their fate.

Saif Ullah is 25 but looks older, aged by a life of near-subsistence farming. Still, the crops of sugar cane, wheat and maize grown on his two hectares of land kept his wife and two young children fed. Then, last week, the Jindi, swollen by torrential rains not witnessed in Pakistan for 80 years, broke its banks, inundating the surrounding villages and farmland.

"I woke up at 3am and got out of bed. I was standing in two feet of water," said Mr Ullah. "People started crying, screaming. We had to swim to the motorway to save ourselves. Our animals drowned."
Mr Ullah can see his ruined house from the road. The few possessions he could call his own lie there under stinking mud and stagnant brown water. A stench of rotting everything – dead animals, contaminated vegetation – fills the nostrils.

The 13 families who inhabited the village of Chatri Tapu slept in the open for a week, with nothing but stones for a bed, until members of the

Kuwaiti Red Crescent

arrived with tents. A bowser provides occasional drinking water, but no food – that comes from motorists who show their pity by throwing packages from their lorries and cars. Drive a little further and the tented village on the motorway, built on a raised embankment, the only high ground around, becomes a town. Scores more tents line the reservation, while animals stand tethered to the crash barrier.

Chaos and Pakistan go together. This country of 170 million souls has plenty to go round. Take the floods, which have killed at least 1,500 people and displaced or affected some 12 million, and add an outbreak of bloody political violence in the port city of Karachi. Then add the ongoing and much bloodier insurgency waged by the Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, and you have a potent brew.

Jihadist groups, who this week claimed the life of a senior police officer in Peshawar, blown up by a teenage suicide bomber as he sat in his car, spy an opportunity in the chaos. Islamic charities, most of them relatively moderate but some more extreme, have shown themselves, with Western charities and NGOs, to be the only effective means of relief during the flood crisis, which shows no sign of abating. While the government, hobbled by bureaucracy, remains invisible, the charities, funded by private donations and injections of cash from the Middle East, are only too visible, proclaiming their presence on banners and at roadside help points.
The seeming insensitivity of the Pakistani ruling class is nowhere better illustrated than by the decision of President Asif Ali Zardari to carry on with a visit to Britain, despite the progressive immersion of his country. Standing alongside David Cameron following bilateral discussions at Chequers, President Zardari, widowed husband of Benazir Bhutto and one-time jailbird, brushed aside the controversy sparked by the Prime Minister's description of Pakistan – during a visit to India of all places – as a duplicitous exporter of terrorism.

"This is a friendship that will never break, no matter what happens," Mr Zardari assured the press. "Storms will come and storms will go, and Pakistan and Britain will stand together and face all the difficulties with dignity."
The storms aren't going anywhere, for the moment. The heavy monsoon rains returned to Pakistan yesterday, grounding rescue helicopters – including a small detachment of US Army Chinooks flown in from Afghanistan – and threatening yet more destruction. Since the first floods in the mountainous north, the progress of the disaster has been simple to predict. The Indus, the mighty waterway that forms Pakistan's backbone, is breaking its banks further and further south as the flood waters roar downstream.

In Sindh, the great southern province, 70 villages were flooded within the space of 24 hours yesterday as the flood tide made its way to the Indian Ocean. Around 200,000 people fled their homes, leaving half a million oblivious to the fate approaching them, according to the Pakistani government. The army, the real powerbroker in Pakistan, has deployed some 30,000 troops to help in rescue and relief operations, but outside Peshawar yesterday the only military convoy in sight was a regiment of artillery making its way north.

Nearby, in the town of Pabbi, 800 refugees crowded into a decaying high school converted into an aid post by the Al Khidmat Foundation, a charity affiliated to the Islamic Jamaat-i-Islami Party. Shahid Wali Khattak, the charity's tall, bearded, imposing general secretary, was scathing about the government's performance.
Maybe these rains are a test from Allah, a test of those who claim to help the people. Zardari – where is he? In Britannia. The government is not here; it has done nothing for these people. We must help ourselves More extreme is the Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, which is carrying out relief work in the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, known until recently as North-West Frontier Province. Falah is an offshoot of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa charity, which in turn is accused of being a reincarnation of the Lashkar-e-Taiba group responsible for the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai.

The poor farmers made destitute by the floods are in no mood to worry about the credentials of those helping them. More than 252,000 homes are thought to have been damaged or destroyed across Pakistan, and 558,000 hectares of agricultural land flooded.

Mohammad Bakhsh is one of the faceless millions. "Our cattle died and the cotton crop was destroyed," he said. "I've got calls on my mobile saying 20 to 25 children from our family are stranded in the village and are holding on to tree branches. Two of my children have drowned and we don't know where they are."

Outside Peshawar, Afghan refugees driven from their country by the fighting of the 1980s have been left to fend for themselves, colonising the raised railway line to escape the flood waters. Stinking mud-soaked blankets lay on the sodden ground yesterday, their only rescued possessions.

Shah Wali, 28, was in despair: "We have never been helped and we are again alone." Yet adults managed to laugh as boys chased parcels tossed from cars. Others scrambled out of the way as the Peshawar to Rawalpindi express chugged into view.

With masterly understatement, army Major-General Athar Abbas summarised the situation. "We do not have the kind of resources to cope with a situation like this, and I think the international community should come to our help."
Zardari, the frontman for the army, is on trial. Waiting in the wings is General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, chief of the general staff and the man the Americans listen to. He has just been granted an unprecedented second three-year term in office. The army is said to be the only institution that really works in Pakistan – a debatable proposition, given its own performance during the floods.

Zardari is this weekend meant to be anointing his son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who turns 22 next month, as the next inheritor of the Bhutto political legacy at a rally in Birmingham. In order to minimise the domestic fallout from his father's foreign sojourn, Bilawal will instead be attending a fundraising event in London in aid of the flood victims.

But there is no doubt that Zardari's reputation at home is tarnished. The News newspaper put it thus: "When millions are drowning in flash floods and when Karachi is burning in a bloodbath and when terrorists are roaming around with abandon, he has decided to insult the nation by his abrasiveness and arrogance."

Zardari, with his wealth, is at one end of the spectrum; Gulab Rahim is at the other. Surveying the ruin of his home, he said: "Our whole life passed in difficulties and we have never seen prosperity. May Allah give us happiness in the life hereafter."